Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 13.554046 15.489791 17.589509 20.034428 22.801262 25.833458 29.406609
2024-10-06 10.678572 13.266338 16.298585 20.106671 24.754001 30.233673 37.177651
2024-10-13 9.468851 12.402898 16.012673 20.766577 26.848031 34.351670 44.296670
2024-10-20 8.189671 11.245868 15.172526 20.565955 27.758173 36.993076 49.722299
2024-10-27 6.875721 9.845360 13.810021 19.461470 27.277780 37.670044 52.493051
2024-11-03 6.334096 9.411483 13.661230 19.919701 28.856410 41.105135 59.103768
2024-11-10 5.876522 9.033822 13.531358 20.355354 30.387789 44.524118 65.865190
2024-11-17 5.304836 8.424146 13.000865 20.144661 30.941252 46.557171 70.739719
2024-11-24 4.766785 7.807415 12.395783 19.752833 31.165743 48.084919 74.920712
2024-12-01 4.398800 7.416241 12.090692 19.775885 31.990661 50.517152 80.560917
2024-12-08 4.141828 7.175836 11.993302 20.101867 33.285419 53.712324 87.528969
2024-12-15 3.872347 6.888262 11.792525 20.236359 34.268224 56.459409 93.931167
2024-12-22 3.567244 6.520450 11.442023 20.115188 34.854454 58.657719 99.671918
2024-12-29 3.348911 6.283062 11.289074 20.309384 35.969182 61.767853 107.081118
2025-01-05 3.225236 6.200482 11.389222 20.934665 37.838450 66.206447 116.926579
2025-01-12 2.982062 5.877775 11.042190 20.745710 38.279829 68.263177 122.846068
2025-01-19 2.625706 5.311261 10.213446 19.627925 36.998275 67.282028 123.443843
2025-01-26 2.525066 5.224166 10.251524 20.091251 38.576854 71.348210 133.103300
2025-02-02 2.428109 5.135266 10.277720 20.530025 40.131045 75.447114 143.035369
2025-02-09 2.257336 4.883584 9.974332 20.317755 40.451559 77.334278 149.046931
2025-02-16 2.079951 4.602665 9.592198 19.922670 40.392795 78.512361 153.798609
2025-02-23 1.963791 4.439345 9.429464 19.945926 41.136470 81.210106 161.524315
2025-03-02 1.888156 4.355792 9.420388 20.274574 42.494766 85.131234 171.771305